Analysis

In-depth analysis and overviews of defence and security in Bulgaria, the Black Sea and NATO's eastern flank: what happened, why it matters and what comes next. Established facts and Flank's assessment are kept clearly apart, and every claim names its source.

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Analysis | Flank.bg

Collage: a man and a woman in dark suits in front of the Presidency building with Bulgaria's coat of arms; on the right, a stylised map of the Black Sea with a radar sweep and warships at sea at sunset.

AnalysisSofia, Bulgaria

President and prime minister in step: what Yotova’s win means for defence and the Black Sea

Iliana Yotova won the runoff with 57.6%, and for the first time in years Bulgaria's head of state and prime minister will pursue one foreign and defence policy. The vote came amid ships sunk in Bulgaria's economic zone, a dispute over a donation from a company bearing the name of a Ukrainian drone maker, and protests outside the Presidency. What is established and what remains a claim.

Monday, 2 November 2026 · Security6 min read

Polish police officers in protective gear stand by a fence beside protest tents and placards.

AnalysisWarsaw

Is Poland’s crisis a coup? What the facts show and why it matters for the eastern flank’s security

The Constitutional Tribunal’s previous leadership and some commentators speak of a coup; former tribunal presidents of the president’s assault on the court. In Flank’s assessment this is a sharp institutional war, not a coup in the classic sense, but it weakens an ally on which the defence of the eastern flank depends.

Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Security5 min read

A green container ship carrying containers sails near the coast.

AnalysisKaliakra

Strike off Kaliakra tests maritime surveillance and allied coordination

The attack on CONTSHIP JET exposed the difference between surveillance, rescue and preventing a strike. In Flank’s assessment, the central question is whether the announced regional coordination will translate into effective warning and protection, without substituting political assumptions for the unknown perpetrator.

Friday, 30 October 2026 · Security6 min read

A helmeted pilot looks out from the rear of a CH-47 over the coast and sea.

AnalysisBulgaria

Black Sea: more surveillance, but no joint protection for shipping yet

Allied and Bulgarian surveillance in the Black Sea is increasing, while regional security mechanisms remain at different stages of preparation. In Flank’s assessment, the central question is how the information gathered will translate into timely decisions and effective protection for ships and infrastructure.

Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Security6 min read

A large bulk carrier sails through the Bosphorus against the Istanbul shoreline

AnalysisBlack Sea

Who is behind the Black Sea ship strikes – what each side says

There is no official attribution. Romania blames Russia; Bulgaria says "the logic leads there" but cannot prove it.

Monday, 19 October 2026 · Shipping1 min read

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President and prime minister in step: what Yotova’s win means for defence and the Black Sea

Is Poland’s crisis a coup? What the facts show and why it matters for the eastern flank’s security

Strike off Kaliakra tests maritime surveillance and allied coordination

Black Sea: more surveillance, but no joint protection for shipping yet

Who is behind the Black Sea ship strikes – what each side says