Russian satellite manoeuvred close to Finnish firm ICEYE’s radar satellite

The Russian satellite Kosmos 2612 carried out deliberate manoeuvres around the commercial radar satellite ICEYE-X36 between 15 and 19 October 2026, according to observations by LeoLabs cited by US defence publication Breaking Defense. Flank does not have access to the primary orbital measurements for independent verification. This is a developing story and further information may be added.

At the time of publication, Flank has found no independent confirmation of this information.

LeoLabs describes manoeuvres ahead of and behind ICEYE-X36

According to a 19 October statement by space-tracking company LeoLabs, cited by Breaking Defense, Kosmos 2612 moved between positions ahead of and behind ICEYE-X36. The space-tracking company estimates the closest distance at around 500 metres. Its representative Adam Marsh describes the behaviour as the most complex and potentially dangerous uncoordinated proximity operation the company has observed.

US defence publication Defense News also reports close trailing at approximately 500 metres over the weekend around 17 October. Armymedia.bg gives a distance of around one kilometre, while also relaying estimates of several hundred metres. These figures should not be treated as measurements of equal precision. Assessing collision risk requires not just distance but also relative velocity, the geometry of the encounter and the accuracy of the observations.

Washington sees threatening behaviour; experts suggest a possible attack rehearsal

According to Defense News, US representative Thomas DiNanno told the UN on 21 October that the Russian spacecraft had deliberately manoeuvred dangerously close to a commercial satellite. He described the behaviour as threatening and consistent with orbital weapons operations. This is the official US assessment, not evidence of a specific weapon or intent to attack.

One possible purpose of the manoeuvre is to rehearse an attack, according to military space operations expert Greg Gillingham, cited by Armymedia.bg. Finnish public broadcaster Yle carries his assessment with attribution to Reuters, so its report is not separate confirmation of the hypothesis. The close approach alone does not establish that an attack is being prepared, says German Space Command commander Major General Michael Traut, also cited by Armymedia.bg. He says such manoeuvres can be used to observe satellites, interfere with their operations or disable them.

The report concerning two further Russian spacecraft also requires a distinction. Defense News presents their possible approach to ICEYE-X37 as a forecast by the company Integrity ISR, not as a subsequent event that has already been established.

The specific link between X36 and Ukraine remains unclear

ICEYE supplies radar imagery to the Ukrainian military through some of its satellites, Defense News notes. This does not, however, establish the role of X36 specifically. According to Breaking Defense, the company has not publicly confirmed who this satellite’s customers are. Armymedia.bg’s claim that X36 itself supplies imagery to Ukraine must therefore be read with that caveat.

The case concerns the security of commercial space services with military users. However, the available information does not establish any interference, damage or interruption to X36’s services. Close manoeuvring, the capability to affect a satellite and intent to attack are separate questions; observations of the first do not prove the others.