Commission admits EU’s 2030 defence readiness objective is at risk

The EU's 2030 defence readiness objective is at risk despite unprecedented decisions and funding, the European Commission writes in its 2027 work programme, adopted and published on 4 November. Euronews reported the wording that morning from a draft of the document; it was kept in the adopted text.

"Our external borders, critical infrastructure and the values underpinning our 'European way' are increasingly coming under threat. Member States face hybrid attacks on their soil," the Commission writes. "We therefore need to do more to achieve these goals and to strengthen our resilience, preparedness and capacity to respond rapidly to crises, or worse."

The Commission will set up a new European Instrument for Strategic Enablers – from strategic transport and air-to-air refuelling to space and cyber defence – with member states, the European Defence Agency and the EU Military Staff. It will keep investing in air and missile defence, drone and counter-drone systems and ammunition, and work on the EU-Ukraine Defence Industrial Pact. The programme also proposes a European Security Emergency Protocol, further operationalising the mutual assistance clause in Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union, and exploring a European Security Council with the closest partners.

According to Euronews, the warning echoes the European Defence Agency's first Annual Defence Readiness Report: despite €418 billion of defence spending in 2025, Europe's ambitions have yet to translate into forces that can deploy, sustain long operations and work together. Pressure has grown with US President Donald Trump's decision to reduce the US military presence in Europe, including strategic enablers. Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has said building the EU's own could cost €500 billion.

What it means

In Flank's assessment, what matters is that the warning comes from the Commission itself, in an official document: the institution that coordinates the EU's rearmament admits the money is not yet turning into capabilities. Record budgets do not quickly buy ready forces – production capacity, delivery times and fragmented national procurement slow their conversion into units that can deploy and sustain operations.

Strategic enablers – transport, air-to-air refuelling, space and cyber capabilities – are the area where Europe relies most on the United States. If Washington withdraws them faster than the EU can replace them, the eastern flank is most exposed, including Bulgaria and the Black Sea region, where allied reinforcement depends on moving forces quickly. The €500 billion estimate exceeds all member states' defence spending in 2025 (€418 billion), which shows the scale of the task.

Counter-drone defence is the most direct example for the region: drone incursions on the eastern flank and strikes on ships in the Black Sea make it urgent, yet according to Euronews only a third of the programmes are expected to deliver by 2030. The programme gives no timeline or budget for the new instrument; they will decide whether the admission turns into catching up.