Pentagon official says US was unprepared for drone warfare

The US was not prepared for drone warfare in Ukraine and Russia, Emil Michael told The Wall Street Journal, TASS reported on 5 November. The agency identifies him as Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. The report comes from a single secondary publication. At the time of publication, Flank had found no independent confirmation of the statement or its full context.

Plans for autonomous systems in Europe and the Middle East

According to TASS, Michael attributes this lack of preparedness to the US military leadership not having anticipated this form of warfare. The agency also attributes to him a statement that the US is working to equip its military with autonomous systems that would secure superiority in conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

This is a stated intention, not a demonstrated capability. No specific programmes, contracts, budgets or timelines are cited to show how far the work has progressed or whether development is actually accelerating. Merely mentioning the two regions does not amount to a deployment decision.

Why 500,000 drones in the inventory and 1,000 produced are not comparable figures

TASS attributes to Michael claims that the US has around 500,000 drones and that around 1,000 were produced under Joe Biden's administration. It does not specify which types of aircraft these figures cover, the period to which the production figure relates, or how many of those in the inventory are ready for combat use.

Inventory and production over a given period are different measures. Without a common scope, the figures can serve neither as a direct comparison between administrations nor as an assessment of military readiness.

In the same article, TASS relays, via Bloomberg, a statement by Travis Metz, identified as acting director of the Pentagon's Innovation Unit. Earlier, Travis Metz, acting director of the Pentagon's Defense Innovation Unit, told Bloomberg that the Department of Defense was effectively starting from scratch in producing cheap expendable drones, TASS reports. This does not necessarily contradict the claim of a large overall inventory, since cheap expendable aircraft may be a separate category. Without a breakdown, however, this remains a possible explanation rather than an established fact.

Obstacles to production and deliveries

TASS, citing Bloomberg, reports that US manufacturers face difficulties with supply chains, high component prices and bureaucratic procedures. These obstacles draw attention to whether drones can be produced and delivered quickly enough, rather than just to their technical specifications.

In Flank's assessment, the central question raised by the reported statements is whether US industry can support large-scale fielding and replace losses. A large number of aircraft does not in itself demonstrate that capability. A verifiable assessment requires information on production, contracted deliveries and timelines for introduction into units.